Do the skilled trades still pay off?

Putting the old saying to the test – is it true?

There is a German proverb: „Handwerk hat goldenen Boden“ – literally “a craft has a golden floor”, meaning a skilled trade is a secure, lucrative livelihood. Does it still hold? The honest answer is: partly – and it depends on where you look.

If you only look at salaried journeymen and journeywomen, the picture is sobering at first: wages in the skilled trades are on average around one fifth below the economy-wide average; for gross hourly pay the gap is just under €3.50 (study by Haverkamp/Fredriksen for the Hans Böckler Foundation). The reasons are structural and have little to do with “the trades as such”: a high share of very small firms, comparatively weak collective-bargaining coverage, and a qualification structure in which only about 12% of employees hold the Abitur and only 4% a university degree.

But this is exactly where the opportunity lies – and why the “golden floor” is no myth: it does not apply automatically, but to those who keep going. Anyone who earns the master craftsman’s title (Meister), specialises, or makes the move into self-employment ends up in a completely different league from the average. In shortage trades such as electrical and plumbing/HVAC, six-figure annual incomes are realistic – a level many graduates never reach.

The skilled trades do have a golden floor – but the floor is emptying, because too few people are coming up behind. For those entering now, the bargaining position has rarely been this strong.

The pay comparison – no sugar-coating

Lifetime earnings – the surprising finding

This is where it gets interesting, because the common assumption “university = more money” is not true across the board.

A widely cited study by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW, University of Tübingen), commissioned by the Baden-Württemberg Chamber of Industry and Commerce, reaches a clear conclusion: masters and technicians earn more than the average graduate up to around age 60. Only after that do graduates edge ahead. By the end of working life, the lifetime earnings of masters/technicians stand at around €1.41 million – only about 3% below those of graduates. The reason: graduates earn almost nothing while studying, whereas hands-on workers already earn regularly at a young age.

A study by the German Economic Institute (IW Köln) for the DIHK confirms this from another angle: graduates of advanced vocational training (masters, technicians, business specialists) earn no significantly lower salaries than Bachelor graduates and are “on a par” with them in career prospects – not least because the Meister is placed at level 6 = Bachelor level in the German Qualifications Framework (officially equivalent, but not identical – the master title is therefore not an academic Bachelor’s degree).

An illustrative worked example of the “head start”: by the time the graduate has finished studying and enters the job, a master tradesperson has often already earned around €120,000 (apprenticeship + journeyman years) – while on the university side, depending on circumstances, there are €30,000–50,000 in costs. That makes for a head start of roughly €150,000–170,000, which the graduate can only hard-pressedly close over the career – all the more so if the master becomes self-employed.

Why now? The skills shortage as leverage

The market has rarely been this good for new entrants:

• The German Confederation of Skilled Crafts (ZDH) estimates the unmet demand at over 200,000 skilled workers. 40 trades officially count as shortage occupations.
• In Leo’s core trades the shortage is especially severe: building electrics is short of more than 18,000 skilled workers and the plumbing/HVAC field around 14,000 – in both cases roughly 8 out of 10 vacancies go unfilled (KOFA skills report).
• Since 2015 there have consistently been more vacancies than unemployed tradespeople – even at full employment, thousands of positions stayed open.
• The succession gap as an opportunity: around 125,000 businesses are looking for a successor over the next five years. In 2024 an estimated 80,000 jobs were lost – not for lack of orders, but because no one could be found to do the work or take over the business.
• Demographics make it worse: by 2035/36, far more people are leaving the labour market than entering it – the workforce is shrinking by a net ~500,000 per year; according to IW Köln, around 4.3 million workers will be missing by 2036.

For a high-school graduate this means, concretely: training and a job offer are practically guaranteed, bargaining power is high – and anyone who becomes a master has a realistic prospect of taking over an existing business or building one of their own.

Where university comes out ahead (the fair counterpoint)

So the comparison stays honest:

• Top subjects pull clearly ahead. In medicine, law, engineering or computer science, entry and lifetime earnings are well above the trades average. If that is where you want to go and you have the staying power, you earn more with a degree.
• The Master widens the gap. The “on a par” applies above all to Meister vs. Bachelor. Against Master and Diploma graduates the pay differences grow larger.
• Journeyman ≠ master. Anyone who stays at journeyman level in the trades without upskilling falls behind both academic paths in lifetime earnings. The “golden floor” is tied to a willingness to keep qualifying.
• Academic degrees offer structural protection. Even in the weaker year 2025, graduate unemployment was just 3.3% (above 3% for the first time since 2007) – still clearly below the overall rate of around 6.3% (annual average 2025).
• Flexibility & ceiling. A degree opens broader industry switches and, in some career tracks, a higher income ceiling.

Verdict – for whom the trades pay off (even with the Abitur)

The phrase “the trades have a golden floor” holds true in 2026 – but as a condition, not a guarantee. It applies to those who want more than the journeyman’s certificate: the master title, specialisation (heat pumps, PV, smart home, building technology), self-employment or taking over a business.

For a high-school graduate the path can be attractive precisely for that reason:

• Financially independent sooner instead of a student loan – with a €150,000–170,000 head start as a starting cushion.
• Lifetime earnings on a par with graduates (master/technician ⌀ €1.41M, ~3% difference) – and for most of working life even above them.
• Master at Bachelor level (GQF level 6) – equivalent, if not identical; the academic door stays open (dual/part-time study, engineer via technician, etc.).
• Maximum market power thanks to the skills shortage and the succession gap, especially in electrical and plumbing/HVAC.
• Tangible, meaningful work with high job security and – through self-employment – an income ceiling that is open at the top.

The Abitur is not a “wasted” advantage here but an accelerator: it shortens educational pathways, makes the master and technician qualifications easier, and keeps the later university route open at any time. The most honest recommendation is therefore not an either/or decision, but a question of inclination: whoever thinks practically, wants to build and shape things, and has entrepreneurial potential gives up nothing financially – and gains in speed, security and market value.